Gold Likely Going Lower

MarketGageR8-400x327

By Peter Aan.

Here’s my take on the metals as we begin to close out a very interesting week in the financial markets.

Gold
Gold’s close on Wednesday turned the trend down in my opinion, but Thursday closed about unchanged. The rally that started last night may be beginning to fizzle this morning. I still look for lower prices

Silver
Silver rallied sharply on Thursday after Wednesday’s freefall, but Thursday’s action was completely contained within Wednesday’s. This morning’s action is subdued. Lower prices expected, although a close above Wednesday’s high of 14.745 (December contract) would cause me to reconsider.

Platinum
Platinum rallied Thursday, but I am not completely convinced that we are not working lower. If we close above Thursday’s high of 1009.10 (October), I will be calling for a test and penetration of the recent high of 1038.50.

Palladium
After making new lows on Wednesday, Palladium rallied solidly higher. This market looks like it may be starting a correction to the upside. A further confirmation would be a close above Thursday’s high of 568.85 (December). However, with the momentum of the recent fall, this rally could easily falter.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


American Eagle Sales as of 8/27

US-YTDSales-compressor

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on August 27th and the amount of change since our last report on August 20, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 8/20/15
One oz.
404,500
404,500
39,500
39,500
Half oz.
26,000
52,000
1,500
3,000
Quarter oz.
28,500
114,000
2,500
10,000
Tenth oz.
58,000
580,000
3,500
35,000
Total
520,500
1,185,500
86,500
174,000
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 8/20/15
One oz.
31,495,000
31,495,000
986,500
986,500

Precious Metals Consistently Lower

MarketGageR8-400x327

By Peter Aan.

As equities seem stuck in a fall/soar/repeat cycle, the consensus in precious metals is consistent: lower prices.

Gold
After a disappointing close on Monday, Gold sold off considerably on Tuesday and is sharply lower this morning. If the market closes today below 1134.0 (December contract), it will signal a change in trend. The first support level on the charts is at 1108.50. It’s a relatively minor support, and major support is much lower, at the July lows.

Silver
Silver crashed through the 14.395 level (September) that I discussed Monday and has penetrated the 14.100 level from last December, a low made briefly in a panic selloff at that time. This sends us back to the long-term monthly charts to excavate ancient support levels. Silver made a bottom in 2008 at 8.400 and then made a multi-year climb up to the 2011 high of 49.820. So what we have this morning are the lowest Silver prices since 2009. I’m not forecasting a move to 8.400, of course, but lower prices are expected.

Platinum
Platinum has worked lower, as suggested in my last commentary. I look for more movement towards the early-August low of 945.40 (October).

Palladium
Palladium continues its steep drop, and has penetrated the 555.90 and 535.00 level I discussed on Monday, bringing us to the lowest levels since September of 2010. There is a support level at 391.20 on the monthly chart, formed on a correction in the middle of the run up in Palladium from 2008 to early 2011. Like the Silver, I’m not predicting a drop to 391.20, I just want to put the current situation into perspective. I don’t think that we can maintain the rate of the current drop for much longer—a bounce in this oversold market is due—but the bears are solidly in control here. Any rally should be considered a correction in a bear market.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


Market Craziness Slightly Extends to Precious Metals

MarketGageR8

By Peter Aan.

We have a bit of craziness in the precious metals markets this morning, although it pales in comparison with the equities markets. Here what I see now:

Gold
Gold is a little higher this morning and has moved to a new high for this move. Higher prices are still expected. A close today below Friday’s low of 1148.50 (December) would be the first sign of a coming correction or trend change.

Silver
We are seeing some dramatic action in Silver. Friday we saw a move to the highest level in more than 5 weeks (although it closed the day lower) and this morning we have collapsed to the lowest level since August 7! I approach technical analysis with the overriding idea that “the market can do just about anything it wants”, and Silver apparently wants to be erratic and crazy. With this morning’s collapse, a move to the August 4 low of 14.395 seems to be logical, if the word “logical” can be applied to this market.

Platinum
Like Silver, Platinum peeked into new highs for this move on Friday, closed lower, and is sharply lower this morning, and has taken out last week’s low of 981.00 (October). The damage is not as dramatic as it is in Silver, but the case for higher prices in Platinum is beginning to show some cracks. Lower prices seem likely.

Palladium
Palladium is range-bound no more, having pierced the 626.80 low discussed last week. This sends us to the monthly charts, where I see support levels just a little lower—the 555.90 low from 2012 and the 535.00 low from 2011. With the momentum favoring the bears, I look for the 555.90 level to be pierced, leading to a test of the 535.00 level in the coming weeks.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


Stock Fizzle – Precious Metals Sizzle

MarketGageR8-400x327

By Peter Aan.

As stocks fizzled the last few days, precious metals sizzled. Here’s what I see now:

Gold
Gold worked sharply higher yesterday, and is a little higher this morning, but well off of its high from last night. This makes the chart of this overbought market look a little weary, but there is no doubt about the trend. Any selloff should be viewed as a correction in a bull market.

Silver
The action here has been quite impressive, recovering from Tuesday’s sharp fall to pierce recent highs last night. It has sold off since then, and is now trading below yesterday’s close. To continue this upward thrust, we need yesterday’s low of 15.255 (September contract) to remain intact, especially on a closing basis. In the absence of that penetration, I look for further movement up to test the July high of 15.900.

Platinum
Platinum continued to work higher, as mentioned on Wednesday, and is trading a little lower this morning. Besides an overbought condition, there is little reason not to look for higher prices.

Palladium
I discussed two possibilities Wednesday: a double bottom with the August 4 low of 586.55 (September), or a new round of lows. We rallied Wednesday without making new lows, but that rally is fizzling this morning. This leaves us with a market that is congested and range-bound. Watch that 586.55 low and the recent high of 626.80 for clues as to the direction of the next trend.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


American Eagle Sales as of 8/20

US-YTDSales-compressor

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on August 20th and the amount of change since our last report on August 13, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 8/13/15
One oz.
365,000
365,000
13,000
13,000
Half oz.
24,500
49,000
1,000
2,000
Quarter oz.
26,000
104,000
0
0
Tenth oz.
54,000
580,000
4,000
40,000
Total
473,500
1,098,000
18,000
55,000
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 8/13/15
One oz.
30,682,500
30,682,500
1,187,500
1,187,500

Extreme Volatility This Morning In Precious Metals

MarketGageR8-400x327

By Peter Aan.

Nothing is constant except change. As I was writing commentary on these four markets this morning, by the time I got to the fourth one, the markets had rallied to the point where I had to return to the top to rewrite! Here’s what I see…for the moment, anyway.

Gold
Gold took a quick dip yesterday morning, but recovered just as quickly, and is making new highs for this move, as mentioned earlier this week. Since meaningful resistance is much higher, there is little reason (except for an overbought condition) to look for anything but higher prices. A close below yesterday’s low of 1108.50 would change my outlook.

Silver
Silver took it on the chin yesterday, had a very weak close, turning the chart decidedly bearish. On the positive side, buyers have ignited this market this morning, although we are still well below the high from several days ago. Watch yesterday’s high and low (15.325 and 14.680 in the September contract) as a clue to how this is sorted out. With the momentum I am seeing this morning, 15.325 may be the one pierced. If so, the bulls are in charge again.

Platinum
Platinum dipped when Gold did, and also quickly recovered. Like the gold, we have penetrated into new highs just within this hour. Significant resistance is about $100 higher, so there is plenty of room on the upside. A close below yesterday’s low of 981.0 would turn me bearish.

Palladium
Palladium’s fall yesterday actually brought it within a few dollars of the August 4 low of 586.55 (September). It is higher this morning, so the question is whether this market will work higher still and form a double bottom with that previous low, or penetrate to new lows. I think the odds favor a new low, but the impressive strength in the other three markets could buoy the Palladium. Certainly, if Tuesday’s high of 614.40 is taken out, a move to 626.80 (the recent high) will seem likely.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


Platinum Group Slumps This Morning

MarketGageR8-400x327

By Peter Aan.

Metals opened Sunday night close to unchanged from Friday afternoon levels, but found some buyers as we worked into Monday morning, although Platinum and Palladium began to slump.

Gold
Gold closed a little lower on Friday, but is recovering this morning. I see no reason not to look for higher prices and more highs for this move.

Silver
Silver had a key reversal day on Friday, a bearish sign, but is slightly higher this morning. A close today below Friday’s low of 15.140 (September contract) would be disappointing to the bulls. I think the trend will prevail, though, and continue to look for higher prices.

Platinum
Platinum is down slightly as I write this, and is trading in a rather tight range formed with Thursday’s and Friday’s action. A close today below Friday’s low of 985.80 (October) would be slightly bearish, but I remain bullish for now.

Palladium
Palladium is moderately lower this morning, and is the closest of these metals to looking like it may turn south. Certainly a close below Friday’s low of 611.20 (September) would be hint of lower prices. Barring that, I remain cautiously bullish.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


Platinum and Silver May Be Nearing Bottom

MarketGageR8-400x327

By Peter Aan.

One thing I look for on a bar chart when a bottom appears to be forming is a close above the high of the low bar. It is an early indication that the market is serious about changing direction. Just find the lowest point reached for the move, look at the high of that bar, and look for a subsequent bar with a close above that (just reverse this when looking for a market top). Any significant extended bull market will do this, so it is another “piece of the puzzle” when analyzing a chart. This can apply to any chart (daily, weekly, or monthly) and the longer the time frame, the more significant the bottom. For the weekly charts of the precious metals markets, Platinum and Silver look like they will do it today, Gold needs a weekly close above 1132.50, and Palladium needs a close above 626.55.

Gold
Gold sold off on Thursday, but is a little higher this morning. We are now at the overbought line on the Bollinger Bands, but higher prices and more new highs for this move still seem most likely.

Silver
Silver also sold off yesterday, but is recovering this morning. Higher prices and movement towards 15.900 is still on the horizon.

Platinum
Platinum and Palladium are showing more strength this morning than are Gold and Silver. We are currently about $10 below the Bollinger Band overbought level, but I don’t see this as much of a barrier to higher prices.

Palladium
Palladium managed (barely) to take out the 626.55 high (September) I mentioned Wednesday morning, sold off on Thursday, but is showing some strength this morning. Another penetration seems likely, leading to further movement towards the July 23 high of 641.50 mentioned earlier.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


American Eagle Sales as of 8/13/15

US-YTDSales-compressor

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on August 13th and the amount of change since our last report on August 6, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 8/6/15
One oz.
352,000
352,000
7,500
7,500
Half oz.
23,500
47,000
500
1,000
Quarter oz.
26,000
104,000
1,000
4,000
Tenth oz.
54,000
540,000
1,500
15,000
Total
455,500
1,043,000
12,500
27,500
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 8/6/15
One oz.
29,495,000
29,495,000
1,123,000
1,123,000