A Quiet Tone Across Precious Metals

MarketGageR8

Gold
Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday, an inside day, and doesn’t seem to be invigorated this morning. A penetration of Monday’s range (1104.90 to 1088.0, basis the December contract) may signal an end to this congestion.

Silver
Silver has a situation similar to Gold. Monday was a quiet day, and a penetration of that day’s range (14.740 to 14.495 in the September contract) may signal the next significant move.

Platinum
The tone here is quiet, also. I continue to view a penetration of 999.7 (October contract) as a signal for higher prices, and 969.1 for lower prices. A penetration of either number on a closing basis would be stronger than an intraday penetration.

Palladium
I continue to watch for a penetration of 641.5 (September) as a clue to higher prices. If we move lower and 610.0 is pierced, that will set us up for a test of the July 20 low of 595.0.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


Test of Gold’s Friday Low Possible

MarketGageR8-400x327

by Peter Aan

Gold
On Friday, Gold penetrated the July 20 low, but buyers lifted the market off of its low, and that buying pressure spilled over into today’s session, but then selling returned. Bottom line? A test of Friday’s low seems probable. A close today in the upper part of the range would put that forecast in doubt.

Silver
Recent action in Silver is similar to Gold. A test of the recent low is the most obvious scenario.

Platinum
Platinum continues to consolidate on a short-term basis. A penetration of 999.7 (October contract) is still the number to watch for a signal for higher prices. If Friday’s low of 969.1 is penetrated on a closing basis, we could be in for a test of the July 20 low of 946.3.

Palladium
Palladium is also treading water on a short-term basis. Continue to watch the 641.5 recent high (September contract) and the 595.0 low for the next clue as to trend direction.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


Gold Crashes Thru Recent Low

MarketGageR8-400x327

Gold

Gold crashed through the recent 1080.0 low, as discussed earlier this week. Like Sunday night’s selling spree, the market quickly found some buyers, and found equilibrium at a level well above its extreme low, but still much lower than yesterday’s close. In the days ahead, be suspicious of any rallies, and wait for a daily close above the high of the low day before looking for something meaningful to the upside.

Silver

Silver took out the 14.49 level, as suggested in my last commentary. Lower prices and more new lows are the obvious expectation here, and a test of that 14.10 level mentioned on Wednesday seems possible in the coming days. Look for a daily close above the high of the low day to signal an end to this leg of the bear market.

Platinum

Platinum has been consolidating for the last few days, but yesterday’s failed rally attempt points to more new lows. A penetration of yesterday’s high of 999.7, especially on a closing basis, will identify the July 20 low of 946.30 (October contract) as a significant bottom. A penetration of 946.30 will signal a continuation of the bear market. Long-term market support levels are much lower at 761.80.

Palladium

Yesterday’s failed rally ended in a lower close, and that selling pressure has spilled over into today. Watch these two levels for clues to the next intermediate-term move: the high from Thursday at 641.50 and the July 20 low of 595.0 (September contract). If 595.0 is taken out, we will turn our attention to the 555.90 low from 2012.


American Eagle Sales as of July 23

US-YTDSales-compressor

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on July 23rd and the amount of change since our last report on July 16, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/16/15
One oz.
311,000
311,000
43,500
43,500
Half oz.
21,000
42,000
1,000
2,000
Quarter oz.
22,500
90,000
1,000
4,000
Tenth oz.
48,500
485,000
2,500
25,000
Total
321,000
778,000
82,000
150,000
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/16/15
One oz.
24,495,000
24,495,000
0
0

Precious Metals Still In A Slump

MarketGageR8-400x327

From Peter Aan, Senior Dillon Gage Trader

Gold

Gold is weak today, being drawn towards the panic low of 1080.0 from Sunday night’s opening. It’s oversold, but oversold markets often get even more oversold, so it is likely that we will see a further test of 1080.0, and a probable penetration. One number to keep in mind: 1086.65. That represents a 50% retracement from the 1999 low to the 2013 high. There’s nothing magical about the number, but markets often have turning points at this retracement level.

Silver

Silver is also down today, but showing less pressure than the gold. A test and penetration of the 14.49 low from Monday (September contract) seems likely here. There actually is a support level at 1410.0 from last December, although the market closed higher that day, which may reduce the importance of that number. Looking long-term, major support is at much lower levels. Currently only a close above 14.98 will give the charts a glimmer of bullishness.

Platinum

Platinum is also down today, and seems likely to make a better test of this week’s low of 946.3, basis the October contract. Currently, only a close above 997.20 will signal a possible end to this bear market.

Palladium

Palladium is the only precious metal that seems to be trying to work higher. Yes, we are sharply lower today, but we have not yet penetrated yesterday’s low, and that higher close yesterday was notable. If today’s action penetrates yesterday’s low of 599.35 (September contract), new lows for this move seem to be in the cards. If yesterday’s high (630.40) is taken out, we just might be able to start something meaningful to the upside.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange


Gold Hit with Panic Sell Last Night

MarketGageR8-400x327

Gold

Gold was hit with panic selling during the opening minutes Sunday evening, taking the August futures quickly down to a breath-taking 1080.0. The bleeding moderated quickly, however, and the market found an equilibrium somewhat above 1100, but still heavily in negative territory. The most important aspect of the recent plunge is that it brings us to the lowest level in several years. You have to go back to early 2010 to find lower gold prices. We are extremely oversold—even the monthly chart is at its Bollinger Band low—so expect some volatile swings. Historically, gold has been a good long-term value when it is at or below the low of the previous four calendar years, a condition that we haven’t seen since the late 1990s, at a much lower price point. The 1080.0 level now forms an obvious support point. With the damage done recently, the market may be drawn to this level like a magnet.

Silver

Silver also fell to new lows, the lowest price for this metal since 2009 on the monthly charts. It’s also oversold, but lower prices are the obvious expectation. With chart resistance much higher, we should be suspicious of any rally.

Platinum

Platinum plunged Sunday night like gold, and also found enough buyers to lift its head off the mat. We have reached the lowest prices since 2008, when the market bottomed at 761.8. That’s quite a bit lower than current prices, and we are oversold, but there is no long-term chart support between here and there.

Palladium

Even Palladium, often the odd man out, could not resist falling to new lows. Long-term, Palladium has held up a little better that the others, and we are beginning to approach the 2012 low of 555.90. Lower prices seem likely here over the coming days and weeks.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


Dillon Gage Metals Names Walter Pehowich Executive Vice President

Walter
Industry Veteran Will Oversee Precious Metals Investment Services

ADDISON, TX (July 21, 2015) – Dillon Gage Metals, an international precious metals wholesaler, has announced that Walter Pehowich has joined the executive team. Pehowich will serve as the executive vice president of precious metals investment services and will work from the company’s New York City trading office.

No stranger to the industry, Pehowich brings over 38 years of experience in precious metals investment services, having begun his career in 1977 at Bache, which later transitioned to Prudential-Bache Securities, and then Jefferies Investment Bank. While at Jefferies, he served as senior vice president with oversight of investment grade precious metal products.

“We are absolutely thrilled that Walter has joined our
team,” stated Terry Hanlon, president of Dillon Gage
Metals. “A veteran industry insider like Walter has an
incredible depth of knowledge and experience in precious
metals. His impeccable reputation precedes him, and he will be an ideal asset for Dillon Gage Metals’ business interests and customers.”

Pehowich holds a National Futures Association (NFA) Series 3 license, authorizing him to advise and sell alternative investments in commodities and futures markets. In addition, he has an in-depth understanding of all aspects of the precious metals refinery industry, including melt and assay operations as well as logistics and traffic.

“After trading and doing business with Dillon Gage Metals for many years, I am honored to join their elite organization of precious metals experts,” said Pehowich. “I’m confident that the contributions we’ll make together will greatly benefit the existing and future customer bases of the company.”

The Dillon Gage Metals New York City trading office is located at 1110 South Ave., Ste. 100, Staten Island, N.Y. 10314. For more information, please visit www.dillongage.com or call (800)375-4653.


Rising USD Continues to Impact Precious Metals

MarketGageR8-400x327



Precious metals continue to feel the weight of a rising USD as gold and company have moved lower throughout the week. With news on Greece and Iran behind us, the market has focused on Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress which was quite upbeat and leaves no doubt that the FOMC intends to raise rates this year with many “experts” now calling for a quarter point hike in September and again in December.

The headline story for our market today is the Chinese Central Bank releasing their official gold reserves for the first time in 6 years. In 2009, China claimed to have reserves of 1,054 tonnes and today that figure is 1,658 tonnes. If this figure is correct, and there is already chatter that it is not accurate, it falls far short of market expectations. This figure puts Chinese reserves in fifth place behind the U.S., Germany, Italy and France. If this figure is accurate, it may signal that the Chinese Central Bank may be a buyer of gold in the short term as it prepares for a meeting with the IMF in the fall where it wants the IMF to include the Yuan as an approved global reserve currency. In the short term our corner of the market benefits from excellent physical demand as investors of all sizes are attracted by the lower price points.

My next commentary will be on July 27. Have a good weekend and upcoming trading week.

Roy

Roy


American Eagle Sales as of July 16, 2015

US-YTDSales-compressor

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on July 16th and the amount of change since our last report on July 10, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/10/15
One oz.
267,500
267,500
27,500
27,500
Half oz.
20,000
40,000
1,000
2,000
Quarter oz.
21,500
86,000
1,500
6,000
Tenth oz.
46,000
460,000
4,000
40,000
Total
321,000
778,000
34,000
75,500
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/10/15
One oz.
24,495,000
24,495,000
0
0

U.S. Econ News Shows Surprising Weaknesses

MarketGageR8

A surprisingly weaker than expected reading on U.S. retail sales yesterday again raises the question about the health of the U.S. economy and raises concern that consumers will go into hibernation if the FOMC raises rates later this year as expected. While physical demand has slowed a bit this week, the pace of buying has been impressive, but gold and its friends’ failure to rally on the retail sales data and physical demand was a surprise and disappointment. This morning finds conflicting economic data contained within the U.S. industrial production report as a sharp decrease in auto manufacturing was offset by a sharp increase in oil and gas mining. This again raises the question of the auto industry cutting back due to slowing consumer demand. On the back of the Greece and Iran news discussed in Monday’s commentary we also have a stronger USD to deal with and the combination continues to pressure our market and most commodities.

This morning finds gold and silver breaking below $1.150.00 and $15.00 as the Euro again trades below 1.10. Look for physical demand to pick up today with the lower price points, but if it does not materialize it is unlikely we will hold support in the low $1,140.00s and at $14.70. Chair Yellen is scheduled to testify before Congress shortly and her comments could certainly move the market in a hurry this morning.