Blog

Gold ticks up in early Friday trading following Thursday’s plunge on inflation fears triggered by the ongoing war in Iran reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year. Gold and silver are both headed for a down week, with the yellow metal on course to close down 9% and silver down more than 10% for the week. Continue reading →

By Jason Laurie

Rising tensions involving Iran have pushed geopolitical risk and energy markets back into focus. That often leads to an immediate assumption that gold and silver should be surging.

That has not been the full story.

Precious metals usually respond to geopolitical stress, but the move is rarely driven by headlines alone. The bigger transmission channel is often energy. When conflict raises concerns about oil flows, inflation expectations can shift, interest-rate expectations can move and investor demand for defensive assets can strengthen. That mix matters for gold and silver far more than a single news cycle does. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, accounting for about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and roughly one quarter of globally traded maritime oil in 2025.

What is the main takeaway for gold and silver investors?

The key point is simple. Gold is acting more like a geopolitical hedge than a panic trade.

That distinction matters. Gold often performs well when markets are pricing risk methodically, especially when investors see a chance that higher energy costs could keep inflation firmer for longer. The World Gold Council says geopolitics will remain an important investment driver in 2026 and that gold’s appeal as a hedge should continue to attract demand.

Silver is part of the same story, but it behaves differently. It can benefit from safe-haven buying, yet it also trades as an industrial metal. That dual role tends to make silver more volatile than gold in both directions. The Silver Institute continues to highlight strong industrial demand as a major force in the market.

Why does oil matter more than the headlines?

When markets look at Iran, they are also looking at shipping lanes, refinery flows and the possibility of supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is the central pressure point. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says a prolonged disruption there could affect around one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) has noted that the route is central to exports from major Gulf producers.

That is why oil often serves as a bridge between geopolitical tensions and precious metals pricing.

Higher oil prices can support gold through three channels:

• rising inflation expectations
• more uncertainty around central bank policy
• broader market volatility

When that pressure persists, gold tends to get firmer support. This relationship also helps explain why gold does not always spike on the first geopolitical shock. Investors may wait to see whether the event changes the inflation and rates outlook in a lasting way.

Has the IEA tried to calm the oil market?

Recent reporting indicates that emergency oil-stock discussions moved quickly as energy markets reacted to the conflict. Reuters reported on March 11 that the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil, with support from member countries, to ease the supply shock and cool crude prices.

For precious metals, that matters because efforts to cool oil can also reduce the odds that an energy spike feeds directly into broader inflation pressure. If the oil market stabilizes, gold may still hold its geopolitical bid, but one of its biggest macro tailwinds can soften.

Why does gold still have structural support?

Even when the immediate geopolitical reaction is muted, gold still has a strong underlying base of demand.

Central banks remain an important part of that story. The World Gold Council says central bank demand stayed durable through 2025, with net central bank demand rising to 230 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2025. Its reserve survey also found that gold continues to play an important role in reserve management during periods of uncertainty. The European Central Bank has likewise noted gold’s value for diversification and for managing geopolitical risk.

That matters because structural official-sector buying can help support gold prices even when rates are elevated or short-term market sentiment shifts.

Why is silver usually more volatile than gold?

Silver sits in two markets at once.

It is a precious metal and a store of value, but it is also an industrial input used across manufacturing, electronics and energy-related applications. The Silver Institute says industrial demand remains a key driver of the silver market and its 2025 survey points to another sizable market deficit with industrial usage at record levels.

That dual identity helps explain why silver can move more sharply than gold. If investors want safe-haven exposure, silver may rise with gold. If markets begin to worry about weaker growth or softer industrial demand, silver can come under pressure more quickly.

What are markets watching next?

Markets are now watching the next layer of consequences, not just the initial conflict.

The biggest questions are whether oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain stable, whether the International Energy Agency release meaningfully offsets supply pressure, whether higher energy costs begin to shift inflation and interest-rate expectations and whether investors continue to add to gold as a hedge against persistent geopolitical risk.

That is the framework that matters most. For precious metals, the issue is not only that conflict exists. It is whether conflict changes the macro backdrop in a way that lasts.

What does this mean for Dillon Gage clients?

For dealers, institutions and other market participants, this is the kind of environment where access, liquidity and execution matter. Dillon Gage has built its business around wholesale precious metals trading, refining, minting and storage, serving dealers, financial institutions, banks and brokerage houses worldwide. As an authorized purchaser from the U.S. Mint and major sovereign mints, the company supports the market through metal sourcing, production capabilities and real-time physical metals trading through FizTrade. For clients seeking secure storage solutions, International Depository Services Group provides fully segregated and insured vaulting for precious metals.

How Oil, Inflation and Risk Are Driving Precious Metals

Gold and silver are not reacting to Iran-related tension in a vacuum. They are responding through oil, inflation expectations and the broader path of economic risk.

Gold continues to behave like a geopolitical hedge. Silver remains tied to both investor sentiment and industrial demand. If energy disruption proves temporary, precious metals may stay supported without breaking sharply higher. If the oil shock lasts and inflation expectations climb, the case for stronger support in gold and potentially more volatile moves in silver becomes much clearer.

This market commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.

About the Source
Jason Laurie, Business Development Manager, North America for Dillon Gage Metals

Gold drops on the release of this morning’s inflation report, as investors now await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook later in the day.

Gold clawed back above the $5000 mark, but still extends last week’s losses, as heightened concerns about inflation supported speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for most of this year, including at its next policy meeting this week.

Gold tipped back up early Friday but was poised for a weekly drop as investor inflation, in part because of the recent oil price spike on the war in Iran, reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. 

Gold falls off recent highs on reports that the International Energy Agency was coordinating a global release of oil reserves to temper the supply shock from the Iran war’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has spurred energy prices this week and roiled markets worldwide. The yellow metal also getting pressure from this morning’s inflation data. Continue reading →

Gold drops early Monday as oil prices spike and inflation fears loom driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which extended into a second week.

Gold rises early Wednesday as investors bought up the precious metal following a dip the first two days of the week and amid increased fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict. The yellow metal is also buoyed by a slipping dollar. Continue reading →

Gold soars early Monday on haven demand following the U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran over the weekend, killing the Islamic republic’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompting reprisal attacks throughout the Mideast. Continue reading →

Gold rose as this morning’s inflation report adds to economic uncertainty. Higher inflation tends to suppress the yellow metal, but safe haven inflows continue to give it support. Gold is headed for a weekly and monthly gain that could lead to its longest monthly rally streak in 50 years.

Gold rose early Wednesday triggered by investor uncertainty around both U.S. tariff policy and Middle East geopolitical risks, with an additional boost from a softer dollar.

Gold extended gains early Monday, with spot prices topping the $5100 an ounce mark, on haven demand after U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran and fresh tariff uncertainty impacts trade policy. Continue reading →

Gold jumped over $25 an ounce following the release of U.S. economic reports, then slipped when the Supreme Court made a ruling on President Trump’s tariffs. Even with the drop, the yellow metal is sticking over the $5000 an ounce mark. Continue reading →

Gold and silver rebound from a one-week low early Wednesday, ahead of this afternoon’s Fed minutes, as investors snapped up lower prices after the metal tumbled Tuesday on a stronger dollar, bringing the yellow metal back to the $5000 an ounce mark. Continue reading →

Gold slipped early Monday on profit-taking after an inflation report released last week took gold above the $5,000-an-ounce threshold again. Continue reading →

Gold back to the $5000 mark, buoyed by cooler inflation data. Silver also rebounded early Friday as investors bought both metals following a selloff in the previous session.

Gold and silver rise early Monday as investors took advantage of the precious metals recent price tumble to snap up the assets.  Continue reading →

Gold is back above $4900 an ounce, rebounding as global equities fell and U.S.-Iran tensions continue. Meanwhile, silver fell early Friday, headed for a weekly loss, after CME Group raised the margin requirement for both futures contracts to address volatility in the markets following silver’s Thursday tumble. Continue reading →

Gold extends its rebound to a second day, rising early Wednesday back over the $5000 an ounce mark. Much of the bounce is appears driven by investors who expect the yellow metal to rally buying the dip. Continue reading →

Gold claws back some of its turf in Monday morning trading, putting it back above $4700 an ounce. Friday saw gold’s biggest drop in a decade triggered by the news that U.S. President Donald Trump would appoint inflation hawk Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Silver also fell below $100 an ounce on the news.

Gold falls early Friday as reports that U.S. President Donald Trump will appoint Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman triggered a correction after precious metals rallied to record highs this week. Gold also slipped as the dollar firmed on the Fed Chair report. However, the yellow metal is still headed for weekly and monthly rallies. Continue reading →

Gold soared early Wednesday, breaching the $5300 an ounce mark, as the dollar tumbled ahead of this afternoon’s Fed decision. The currency’s drop occurred after President Donald Trump said that he isn’t concerned about the value of the currency, which is trading at its lowest level in four years. Continue reading →

Gold jumps in early morning trading, extends rally above $5,100 an ounce, on haven demand and a weaker dollar which also took silver higher into triple-digit territory and platinum to a new record. Continue reading →

Gold and silver continue to soar with gold taking aim at $5000 an ounce early Friday as silver approached $100 an ounce and platinum hit a record. Continue reading →

Gold easily topped $4,800 an ounce for the first time ever early Wednesday, and silver was near a record high as tensions intensified between the U.S. and European allies over President Donald Trump’s attempts to acquire Greenland.  Continue reading →

Gold and silver soar to record highs early Monday on U.S. tariff threats and escalating tensions over U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempts to acquire Greenland, with gold nearing the $4700 mark. Continue reading →

Gold and silver ease early Friday on weaker haven demand from geopolitical tensions. Silver fell from a record high after the U.S. refrained from imposing import tariffs on critical minerals. Continue reading →

Gold and silver continue record breaking rallies with silver soaring above $90 an ounce amid increased concern about Federal Reserve independence, the prospect of more interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. Continue reading →

Gold ticks up after U.S. jobs report for December shows softly mixed data. Continue reading →

Gold slips from a one-week high early Wednesday on profit taking and a stronger dollar.

Gold and silver rallied early Monday on haven demand hitting a one-week high after the U.S. deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend, transporting him and his wife to New York to face U.S. drug and weapons charges.  Continue reading →

Gold and silver rallied early Friday after posting their best annual performances in decades in 2025. Platinum also saw a New Year surge. Continue reading →

Gold and silver poised for best year in decades despite slipping early Wednesday as silver tumbled from near-record highs on profit taking and a stronger dollar. Platinum is also set for its biggest annual gain on record.

Precious metals have gotten a boost this year on geopolitical and economic risk as well as anticipation of future interest rate cuts. 

February gold futures rose 1% Tuesday to settle at $4,386.30 an ounce on Comex, though the most-active contract retreated 3.7% in the first two days of the week. Bullion is up 3.1% in December after gaining 6.5% in November and increasing 3.2% in October. It’s up 66% this year. The metal rose 27% in 2024, its biggest annual gain since 2010.  The February contract is currently down $25.10 (-0.57%) an ounce to $4361.20 and the DG spot price is $4343.00.

March silver futures rallied 11% Tuesday to settle at $77.92 an ounce on Comex, and the most-active contract gained 0.9% so far this week. The white metal hit a series of record highs this month. Silver is up 36% this month after increasing 19% in November and rising 3.3% in October. It’s up 166% this year after rising 21% in 2024. The March contract is currently down $5.119 (-6.57%) an ounce to $72.800 and the DG spot price is $73.41.

Most global financial markets will be closed Thursday for New Year’s Day.

Gold in particular has been sensitive to speculation about multiple U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026. Lower interest rates are typically bullish for precious metals, making them a more attractive alternate investment. 

The minutes of this month’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, which came out Tuesday, showed that policymakers were tightly split over whether to cut rates this month. The Fed ended up reducing interest rates for a third consecutive time to 3.50% to 3.75%. The minutes indicated that this divide is likely to persist, however.

“With respect to the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, some participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for some time after a lowering of the range at this meeting,” the minutes stated. 

About 85% of investors are betting that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the next policy meeting at the end of January, according to figures tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool. About 16% expect another 25 basis point cut. The central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation, ultimately imposing increases of by 5.25 percentage points before beginning rate cuts last year. 

Precious metals have also soared in recent weeks on geopolitical tensions, including between the U.S. and Venezuela and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Precious metals are a traditional hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. 

Silver, meanwhile, has been rallying on industrial demand and tight supply as it’s increasingly considered a critical metal for electronics and other goods. The same is true for platinum and palladium, which also had a strong year. 

Spot palladium advanced 1.5% Tuesday to $1,651.50 an ounce but has plunged 15% so far this week. Palladium is up 14% this month after adding 0.5% in November and rising 14% in October. Palladium is up 78% this year after dropping 17% in 2024. Currently, the DG spot price is down $54.10 an ounce to $1643.00.

Spot platinum rose 7% Tuesday to $2,235.00 an ounce but is down 7.9% so far this week. It’s up 35% in December after climbing 4.7% in November and rising 1% in October. Still, platinum is up 145% in 2025 after losing 8.4% in 2024.  The DG spot price is currently down $169.70 an ounce to $2085.40.

Disclaimer: This editorial has been prepared by Dillon Gage Metals for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. This editorial opinion is not to be construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity, or course of action. Opinions expressed herein cannot be attributable to Dillon Gage. Reasonable people may disagree about the events discussed or opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not come to fruition, results are likely to vary substantially. It is not a solicitation or advice to make any exchange in commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisers with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand, and accept this disclaimer.

Gold softens as silver slips early Monday after breaching $80 an ounce on Sunday amid a broader-market, year-end rally that also sent equities climbing. The yellow metal gave up ground on profit-taking. Continue reading →

Gold hits a record high as silver tops $75 an ounce, and platinum approached a record on geopolitical tensions, speculation on future U.S. interest rate cuts and thin liquidity around the Christmas holidays.  Continue reading →

Gold, silver and platinum soared to new record highs early Wednesday on haven demand and speculation of further U.S. interest rate cuts, with the yellow metal topping $4500 at one point in early trading.  Continue reading →

Gold and silver hit record highs early Monday, with teh yellow metal landing solidly above $4400 an ounce, buoyed by haven demand amid the ramped up tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela as well as a weaker dollar and expectations of additional U.S. interest rate cuts. Continue reading →

Gold slipped early Friday but headed for a weekly gain as the markets considered the week’s mixed economic data. Both gold and silver are heading for their best annual performances since 1979. Continue reading →

Gold and silver rose early Wednesday, with silver hitting a record above $65 an ounce, driven by softer than expected U.S. jobs data for last month and haven demand from geopolitical uncertainty related to Venezuela. Continue reading →

Gold climbed early Monday to a near seven-week high as it got a boost from a weaker dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Continue reading →

Gold traded near the highest level in seven weeks and silver was just below a record high Friday as investors weighed the impact of this week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy decision and statement. Continue reading →

Gold edges down Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, while silver climbed to new record highs above $60 an ounce. Continue reading →

Gold relatively steady in Monday morning trading ahead of the Fed policy meeting coming up on Wednesday. Continue reading →

Gold buildng on rate cut hopes, with an additional boost from a weaker dollar. Silver was steady after retreating from record highs.

Investors are awaiting key inflation data that may signal what the Federal Reserve will do at its upcoming policy meeting next week. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for the third time in a row.

The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the personal expenditures price index, is set for release Friday. The government shutdown in October and part of November delayed a lot of economic data, keeping policymakers largely blind when considering the state of the economy so the data that is available is being closely scrutinized. 

The private payrolls report from ADP on Wednesday, provided the most recent picture on labor market conditions on Wednesday. It showed the largest monthly drop in more than two and a half years in November, with a surprise 32,000-job decline. The Fed has said it closely watches inflation and labor market data when setting monetary policy.

The monthly U.S. jobs report for November, which normally comes out the first Friday of the following month, isn’t coming out until Dec. 16 and will be combined with the October report. The September figures came out Nov. 20. 

Investors are pricing in a 25 basis point cut at next week’s Fed meeting. More than 87% of the investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are betting that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points Dec. 10, while the rest expect rates to stay unchanged. An additional rate cut would be considered bullish for precious metals, making them a more attractive alternate investment. 

October’s interest rate reduction to 3.75% to 4.00% was the second 25-basis point reduction in a row. The central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation, ultimately imposing increases of by 5.25 percentage points before beginning rate cuts last year. 

February gold futures rose 0.3% Thursday to settle at $4,243.00 an ounce on Comex, and the most-active contract lost 0.3% in the first four days of the week. Bullion gained 6.5% last month after increasing 3.2% in October and surging 10% in September, the most in six months. It’s up 61% this year. The metal rose 27% in 2024, its biggest annual gain since 2010.  The February contract is currently up $20.40 (+0.48%) an ounce to $4263.30 and the DG spot price is $4242.90.

March silver futures decreased 1.9% Thursday to settle at $57.49 an ounce on Comex, though the most-active contract rallied 0.6% in the first four days of the week. Silver increased 19% in November after rising 3.3% in October and adding 15% in September. It’s almost doubled this year after rising 21% in 2024.  The March contract is currently up $1.189 (+2.07%) an ounce to $58.680 and the DG spot price is $58.57.

Silver traders took profits Thursday after the white metal rose to an all-time high earlier in the week on a historic squeeze in the London market. 

Spot palladium decreased 1.3% Thursday to $1,456.00 an ounce after gaining 0.3% in the first four days of the week. Palladium added 0.5% in November after rising 14% in October and gaining 14% in September. Palladium is up 57% this year after dropping 17% in 2024. Currently, the DG spot price is up $29.00 an ounce to $1478.00.

Spot platinum edged up 0.1% Thursday to $1,660.30 an ounce and up 0.2% so far this week. It climbed 4.7% in November after rising 1% in October and gaining 15% in September. Platinum is up 82% in 2025 after losing 8.4% in 2024.  The DG spot price is currently up $2.70 an ounce to $1658.50.

Disclaimer: This editorial has been prepared by Dillon Gage Metals for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. This editorial opinion is not to be construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity, or course of action. Opinions expressed herein cannot be attributable to Dillon Gage. Reasonable people may disagree about the events discussed or opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not come to fruition, results are likely to vary substantially. It is not a solicitation or advice to make any exchange in commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisers with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand, and accept this disclaimer.

Gold rises as silver traded near a record high early Wednesday amid mounting expectations of lower U.S. interest rates and silver supply tightness. Rate cut hopes were boosted by this morning’s negative jobs report. Continue reading →

Gold rallies to a six-week high early Monday and silver climbed to a record high as the dollar fell and the metals attracted haven investors. Continue reading →

Gold rises to the highest level in almost two weeks early Wednesday on bets of rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month and a weaker dollar. Continue reading →

Gold climbs back after slipping early Monday when the dollar rose to near six-month highs. The yellow metals’s bounce back driven by growing hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again next month and an ebbing dollar.

Gold little changed in early Friday but heading for a weekly drop after strong U.S. September jobs numbers on Thursday solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in December. Continue reading →

Gold jumps Wednesday morning as investors sought safe-haven assets ahead of a key data release delayed by the U.S. government shutdown and the minutes of the October Federal Reserve policy meeting for signals on which way monetary policy will go in December. Continue reading →

Gold little changed early Monday with investors awaiting economic data that is backlogged by the U.S. federal government shutdown for signals on monetary policy. Continue reading →

Gold slips early Friday amid increasing sentiment that the Federal Reserve may leave interest rates unchanged next month, though a softer dollar has the yellow metal headed for a weekly gain. While spot gold dropped 3.1% as of 09:02 a.m. ET, it’s still up 1.4% this week. Continue reading →

Gold steady early Wednesday, ticking up a little as investors anticipate a December rate cut once economic reports resume. The yellow metal was subdued by a stronger dollar and profit taking. Continue reading →

Gold rises early Monday to two-week high on haven demand after U.S. consumer sentiment fell to almost the lowest level on record, signaling a weakening economy. The yellow metal also boosting on signs that the government may be opening, giving rise to hopes of economic data finally being released that supports a December rate cut. Continue reading →

Gold ticks up early Friday after a private report showed weak U.S. numbers, with the largest drop in more than 20 years for an October. Continue reading →

Gold rose early Wednesday from a one-week low on safe haven buying, shrugging off Wednesday morning’s stronger than expected ADP jobs report. Continue reading →

Gold firms above $4,000 an ounce in Monday morning trading as investors await Wednesday’s private payroll data. That’s despite a stronger dollar, the end of a tax rebate in China and concern that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates again this year. Continue reading →